Episode 529 Scott Adams: Declining Sex, Trade War, Cognitive Blindness, Sleepy Joe, HOAXES

Topics: 

  • Heard it with my own ears…saw it with my own eyes!
    • No…you didn’t, just watch FULL video, read FULL transcript
    • HOAX VICTIMS: I REFUSE to view proof that I’m wrong!
  • Dismantling a person’s world view in real time…
    • …triggers cognitive dissonance
    • NOBODY says… “I’ll look at the transcript, see if you’re correct”
  • 2 Jewish people I’ve personally spoken too…
    • …attended the Charlottesville event, thought it was about statues
    • They obviously did NOT support Nazis at the event 
  • “Fine People” HOAX is a LOAD BEARING WALL for the other HOAXES
    • Debunk that HOAX, other HOAXES will be naturally challenged
  • Troll indicator flags
    • Cat or cartoon icon for their account
    • Followers are around a couple hundred followers
    • They attack the target person…NOT the person’s argument
    • Appears to be a centralized, organized, psychological attack
  • Heartbeat bills, are they compatible with Roe v Wade?
  • Poll says men are having far less sex
    • AOC says that’s because men can’t harass women anymore
    • Are there more obvious reasons for men having less sex?
    • Men are becoming feminized…in general, not all men, just in general
    • Do women want to have sex with feminized men?
  • Tinder allows women to always choose the more attractive guys
    • Why would they pick less attractive guys?
    • 20% of men get the majority of Tinder sex opportunities
  • AG Barr appoints VERY tough, experienced US Attorney John Durham
    • Durham will investigate the origins of the Russia Collusion HOAX
  • 3 attacks on Saudi tankers…no reporting or speculation on who did it?
    • What does it mean that NOBODY is even speculating?
  • China trade talks and the possibility of a deal…eventually
  • Sleepy Joe Biden…where has he gone?
    • Is the media refusing to cover him, ignoring him?
    • Do the Democrat kingmakers think Biden is weak on key topics?
  • Imagine a debate between Biden and Kamala
    • What would the audience be thinking, watching during that debate?
  • January 2020, we might see huge amounts of Democrat depression
    • President Trump might be polling at untouchable levels
  • Nuclear HAS to be a giant part of the climate change solution
    • Twice now, Juan Williams on The Five…can’t hear “nuclear”
    • Cognitive Blindness, nuclear options don’t even register
  • One President Trump tweet about nuclear development, options
    • Green New Deal people couldn’t ignore nuclear options

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The post Episode 529 Scott Adams: Declining Sex, Trade War, Cognitive Blindness, Sleepy Joe, HOAXES appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Episode 421 Scott Adams: (Part 2) Scott Induces Cognitive Dissonance in Guest Callers Opposing Emergency Border Security Funding

Topics: 

  • Q. For Guest Callers:
  • Why are you opposed to emergency funding for border security?
    • Scott discusses a range of topics on the issue with callers

I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a “boss” somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I’m trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.

See all of my Periscope videos here.

Find my WhenHub Interface app here.

The post Episode 421 Scott Adams: (Part 2) Scott Induces Cognitive Dissonance in Guest Callers Opposing Emergency Border Security Funding appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Episode 83: “Word Salad” tell for Cognitive Dissonance on CNN Today

Topics:

  • Remember: The “news” has an agenda and is part of the political process
  • Examples of “word salad” on CNN’s Brian Selter’s show today
  • President Trump has raised our awareness; we now know to question the “news”

 

I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a “boss” somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I’m trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.

See all of my Periscope videos here.

For persuasion-related content in book form, see my bestselling book, Win Bigly.

The post Episode 83: “Word Salad” tell for Cognitive Dissonance on CNN Today appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Episode 81: How to Spot Cognitive Dissonance

Topics:

  • Whiteboard discussion
  • The clues and tells for spotting cognitive dissonance
  • Cognitive dissonance affects EVERYBODY
  • Yes…even you
  • You can’t see it in yourself, easier to spot in others
  • Are they the ones in cognitive dissonance, or is it you?
  • Trigger examples

 

I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a “boss” somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I’m trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.

See all of my Periscope videos here.

For persuasion-related content in book form, see my bestselling book, Win Bigly.

The post Episode 81: How to Spot Cognitive Dissonance appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Episode 71: How to Spot Cognitive Dissonance in the Media

Topics:

  • Whiteboard discussion – Pattern of Behavior
  • The “so” tell combined with an absurd absolute
  • Milton Erickson shoe on table example
  • Word salad
  • Triggers for cognitive dissonance
  • Examining Trump “animals” comment
  • “Fits a pattern” fallacy
  • Whack-a-mole persuasion
  • Primed by our preferences
  • Occam’s razor
  • Confirmation bias
  • 20 year rule
  • Ego as a tool that doesn’t control you

I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a “boss” somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I’m trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.

See all of my Periscope videos here.

For persuasion-related content in book form, see my bestselling book, Win Bigly.

The post Episode 71: How to Spot Cognitive Dissonance in the Media appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Cognitive Dissonance Update 1

In a prior post, and as part of my Master Persuader Series (about Trump), I predicted that Trump’s success would trigger cognitive dissonance the likes of which you have rarely seen. That is a tell for mass persuasion.

I give you two examples from today.

The Huffington Post tells us Donald Trump’s rise is over. They’re calling a top to his popularity and pre-gloating his demise.

image

At Redstate.com we learn that polls are misleading and the real leader in the GOP primary is Rubio.

image

While Reuters tells us Trump has surged to an all-time high in the polls.

As I have explained before, reality is subjective. Any one of those filters on reality could be as “true” as any other. But what model of reality does the best at predicting?

Keep watching and find out.

Update: And now we learn that modern polling is totally unreliable. Or better than ever. Read more here.

If you think this blog is creepy, you should see my books


Scott Adams Blog

Tells for Cognitive Dissonance (with some Trump flavoring)

When a skilled persuader exerts influence on a large group, people will generally react in one of three ways.

20% Will be heavily influenced right away, and be happy about it.

60% Will be mildly influenced, over time, with repetition.

20% Will be unusually angry, comparing the persuader to evil dictators and the like.

Under the Master Wizard Hypothesis, the folks who are the angriest are having a reaction to the persuasion that violates their self-image, throwing them into cognitive dissonance. The 20% who are easily influenced without anger had no skin in the game, in the sense that they had not yet picked sides.

The tells for Cognitive Dissonance are many. Here are some I haven’t before mentioned.

Tell 1: Wow

When a pundit or stranger on the Internet starts a comment with “Wow,” as if shocked by an opinion, that is a tell for cognitive dissonance. That is anger disconnected from reason. People who have reasons for disagreeing offer them right away, because doing so is the strongest counter-argument. “Wow” usually indicates you are feeling persuasion that violates your self-image as a person with smart opinions.

The “wow” tell is a specific example of…

Tell 2: No specific criticism

When you see objections without reasons, as in “That is the dumbest idea of all time” it is a tell for cognitive dissonance. To be fair, some things are legitimately dumb. So this tell is less conclusive than “wow,” as far as I can tell.

Tell 3: So you’re saying…

When someone restates your persuasive and reasonable point as an absurd point in order to refute it, that’s a tell for cognitive dissonance. Look for a wrongly-restated argument that looks so wrong you think it must be intentional. But it is not always intentional. Often it is cognitive dissonance. 

Tell 4: Analogy Arguments

Analogies are useful for explaining new ideas the first time. But in the realm of debate, they can only make things worse because analogies are messy and subject to interpretation. Rarely does one rely on an analogy as the main argument when reason and data would do the trick.

The classic example is a Hitler analogy (Godwin’s Law). But any absurd analogy is an equally good tell.

Tell 5: Peering Into the Soul of a Stranger

When you hear someone say they can look into a persuader’s soul and see the evil intent – without the benefit of any actual evidence in the real world – that is almost always cognitive dissonance. That usually takes the form of accusations about sexism, racism, narcissism, and greed. Those are all inner thoughts.

You might be saying to yourself that what I call cognitive dissonance is plain old stupidity. I suppose it falls under the wide umbrella of stupidity, but it is a special flavor. Regular stupidity stays with you all the time. But the cognitive dissonance type is only activated when your self-image is violated by a persuasive argument.

With that in mind, consider the reactions to Donald Trump’s plans to secure the borders of the country, which is obviously the job of a president. You can dislike Trump’s stated plan (as I do) but when you see folks compare Trump to famous dictators and evil actors, that is usually a tell for dissonance.

Not convinced? 

If you have a friend who opposes a secure border with Mexico, ask that friend for some details of his plan that allows anyone to come in. How’s that plan work? That’s when he might say, “Wow. That’s the sort of question Hitler asked.”

Protecting the United States from foreign threats, both military and economic, is literally the job description of the President. You can hate the wall, and you can hate Trump’s deportation plan (as I do) but it is hard to argue that the president should ignore the office’s primary responsibility of protecting the country from military and economic threats. 

I remind you I am not smart enough to know who would be a good president. I think it all depends what kind of surprises the future holds, and I am not psychic. 

And about Trump’s deportation plan, if Trump is consistent with decades of Trumpness, that is just an opening offer. He doesn’t expect to deport those folks. But a good negotiator doesn’t START by conceding.

Ask yourself which is more likely: 1) An experience business person believes he can deport 11 million illegal immigrants and everything will work out fine, or 2) The most famous negotiator on the planet, who negotiates everything, all the time, is making an opening offer he expects to negotiate away.


Scott Adams Blog

Cognitive Dissonance: You be the Judge

Here’s an interesting article in the Washington Post that explains why Trump is still leading in the polls. At least so far. The explanation for Trump’s continued rise in the polls, according to a convincing chart in the article, is that the media is giving him all of the attention.

Now refer back to my post on how to spot a tell for cognitive dissonance, and take a look at the one titled nonsense rebuttal.

Okay, armed with that knowledge, you get to judge whether it is I who is experiencing cognitive dissonance or the author of the article. 

We both have a strong bias on this topic, so realistically, he and I have zero credibility on this question. That’s why I deputize you to be the deciders.

My view is that early in the race (five minutes ahead of time) Trump asked himself what he needed to do in order to suck all of the attention out of the entire universe and starve the lesser-known candidates. Then he did it. Because that is the obvious play. And the media danced.

The article by Mr. Sides takes the view that the media is not the puppet in the middle but rather the prime cause of Trump’s rise. By this view, Trump is just shiny and fun and his novelty will fade.

One of us is blind to the obvious. Right?

I am not qualified to judge my own cognitive dissonance, so I leave it to you.

Remember from my article on tells that there are plenty of false-positives. It isn’t a science. This is just for fun. Look for the trigger event to help you estimate the odds of a real tell sighting. See how you do.

Scott


Scott Adams Blog

The Tells (for cognitive dissonance)

Today I offer you a new and probably different filter for interpreting your reality. You can try the filter in the same way you would try on a new pair of sunglasses. See for yourself if the new filter fits the data better than your old one. This is for entertainment only. Science is probably at a different URL.

What follows is a description of some of the tells for cognitive dissonance. If any of what follows is accurate, it might set you on a path that changes your life in delightful ways. Or maybe reading this post will do nothing but leave you with less time to interact with other people. Either way, you’re welcome.

This might be a lucky day for you.

Pay attention.

Cognitive dissonance, as I use the term in this post, refers to a situation in which a person is presented with facts that contradict that person’s self-image, causing said person to say things that sound 100% reasonable to the speaker while sounding like nonsense to others.

When I say nonsense, I do not mean a normal difference of opinion based on different values or different information. I mean serious head-scratching WTF stuff.

A tell, in this context, means an involuntary action that reveals a person’s inner thoughts in an unguarded moment. In the context of a poker game, a tell might signal a bluff. In the context of police work, a tell might signify a lie. In the context of hypnosis, a tell signifies a switch from rational thinking to irrational thinking. 

A tell in this context can mean you guessed the admin password for a human being. The tell is your feedback that the words you used got translated into a physical response. That is the hypnotist’s equivalent of A-B testing. The hypnotist tries an approach and watches for the subject’s physical reaction. 

Recognizing tells takes practice. The more tells you spot in your lifetime, the easier it is to find more. Your mind gets tuned to them. You recognize the pattern. You see them coming before they even happen, based on the trigger event. 

Complicating all of this is the fact that each tell has a false-positive explanation that will always sound plausible. The best way to estimate the odds of a tell being the real thing is by its proximity to a known trigger. If someone exhibits a tell symptom without a trigger, it probably just means you are talking to an idiot. And that happens less than you probably assume it does. All the rest of your “idiot” encounters are smart people experiencing cognitive dissonance and not realizing it.

And now for the list of tells.

Speechless Moment. This one can only be detected when you are in the same room. When a person that is otherwise witty and verbal becomes temporarily tongue-tied, it means they are having a strong physical response to your suggestion. Use this method in your love life to identify a person’s sexual preferences in casual conversation.

Example: 

Love Interest: “Sorry I am late.”

You: “You need a good spanking.” (Said with a knowing grin, for effect.)

Love Interest: [silence that last over 5 seconds]

Interpretation: A sudden “struck dumb” silence means you reached into your love interest’s subconscious and found a powerful hidden craving. 

False-positive: That’s a messed-up thing to say to a nice girl you barely know. She is wondering how to end the date early.

Lone Penguin: The Lone Penguin is the person you see on the Internet imploring others to stop listening to person X. The usual phrasing looks like “Why is anyone listening to that terrible person X?”

The tell is that the Lone Penguin will offer no data or reasoning to back up the emotion. At most, the Lone Penguin will offer a link to a story in which a journalist got something wrong or out of context.

Example:

Economist: Here is my data showing that capitalism is the best system for everyone, even the poor. (This is just an example.)

Aged Hippy: “Why are we listening to this fascist? He said in an interview ten years ago that his favorite color is blue.”

Interpretation: The Lone Penguin hates person X because the argument made by person X is persuasive, and that violates the Lone Penguin’s identity as a person who always disagrees with person X and similar lines of thinking. 

False-positive: Person X really is a total turd with no redeeming points of view. The Lone Penguin is actually just a person with good judgement.

Personal Attack: A personal attack without reason is among the strongest tells. That means the person being attacked has been so persuasive that it is shaking someone else’s self-image.

Example:

Politician: My policies will stimulate the economy. Here is the data proving that this plan worked in every country where it became law.

Citizen: That guy is a reactionary asshole

Interpretation: The politician’s argument is so strong that it violates the citizen’s identity as someone that is always on the other side of that particular argument. How can the citizen maintain his old self-image and still feel rational? Cognitive dissonance is triggered and anger comes out.

False-positive: The politician really is a reactionary asshole with a bad plan.

Godwin’s Law Comes Early: Named for its creator, Mike Godwin, this observation says that every online conversation will eventually invoke Hitler’s name if you wait long enough. For our purposes, the tell is that Hitler’s name comes up too soon.

Example:

Politician: I favor a tiny change in gun laws that will have no impact on legal gun ownership but might keep some guns out of the hands of criminals.

Citizen: That’s what Hitler said.

Interpretation: If you skip directly to Hitler without passing “why” you are probably experiencing cognitive dissonance.

False Positive: Sometimes a genocidal dictator does invade a neighboring country.

Too Many Explanations: When you see pundits or citizens offering a wide variety of explanations for an observation, it probably means no one has any idea what the real reason is. If people were rational they would say they don’t know the reason. But if cognitive dissonance sets in, people will imagine reasons and convince themselves they are real.

Example:

Pundit 1: He leads in the polls because he is an outsider.

Pundit 2: He leads in the polls because he says what people are thinking.

Pundit 3: He leads in the polls because the press likes a clown. He will fail later.

Pundit 4: He leads in the polls because people like his immigration plan.

Pundit 5: He leads in the polls because serious voters are not paying attention yet.

Pundit 6: He leads in the polls because people think he can win and people like to win.

Interpretation: When everyone has their own explanation, nearly all of them are in cognitive dissonance. 

False-positive: Sometimes things do have more than one explanation. 

Slippery Slope: Any reference to a slippery slope is a tell for cognitive dissonance because there is no logical argument that involves a slippery slope unless kids are involved. When reason fails, you go for a Hitler analogy or a slippery slope defense. They are roughly equal in absurdity.

Example: 

Politician: I favor doctor-assisted suicide.

Citizen: That is a slippery slope to a cannibal society.

Interpretaton: I agree with your reasoning but it scares me because it makes me imagine something similar happening in a bad way.

False-negative: You have encountered a rare situation in which the slippery slope is a real thing. For example, allowing your kid to eat candy before dinner just one time is definitely a slippery slope.

Jokeless laugh: When I was training to be a hypnotist, our instructor taught us that a subject will often laugh at something you say, or a background sound, that would normally have no humor trigger. The real trigger is that the subject is feeling the hypnotist’s words translate into bodily reactions and it causes an involuntary giggle.

Case in point, I often find myself doubled up in laughter when I read quotes from Donald Trump. I feel the persuasion working at the same time I recognize his tricks for pulling it off. That feeling of absurdity (my mind is being changed without the benefit of reason) triggers a laugh response when there is no joke in the vicinity.

Example:

Hypnotist: Your arm feels weightless. It will start to float.

Subject: Hee hee! That lawnmower outside made a funny noise.

Interpretation: The subject felt her arm getting lighter, which makes no sense in her old view of how things work, and it triggered a laugh response.

False-positive: The lawn mower is actually funny for some reason.

Nonsense Rebuttal: When you hear an irrational response to your rational argument, it probably means the argument was sound but it violated someone’s sense of identity. Here I am talking about the truly illogical responses you see on the Internet all the time, not routine disagreements over data and priorities.

Example:

Other Guy: Locking up criminals forever does not reduce crime.

Me: That could only be true if for some reason law-abiding people decide to become criminals at a higher rate because the real ones are in jail.

Other Guy: It is a slippery slope.

Me: WTF?

I am sure I am leaving out lots of tells. And you will be quick to point out that the tells conveniently form a narrative that lets me be right all the time while viewing everyone else as being in a state of cognitive dissonance.

You have a good point there.

Why do I think I can spot tells more often than chance would predict? The best answer I can offer is that I think I can. My experiences are anecdotal, not measured. You are invited to be skeptical about this and all the rest of my blogging on the topic of hypnosis.

In a past post I teased you that there are some topics that can’t be communicated because of their nature. This is one of them. The rational people reading this blog should be skeptical that, for example, Trump can dominate the country using little more than good business sense and linguistic engineering. To me, that seems like an easy accomplishment for Trump, given his skill level. 

Trump’s “inexplicable” success so far opens the door just enough for me to discuss this topic. If you watch him march to the White House while the pundits disagree why this “magic” is happening, my credibility on this topic will increase to the point where  I can communicate with you and you will listen. There is lots more to tell.

If Trump stumbles, for any reason, the door will close and no one will think his skills at persuasion were a big thing. Most of you expect that to happen. And stumbling seems common enough that we can’t rule it out. Nate Silver, who is right more than most people, gives Trump a 2% chance of success.

But if Trump goes all the way, and the Master Wizard hypothesis fits the data best, everything you know about the world will change. I know how that will feel because a similar thing happened to me in my twenties.

You think the Trump spectacle is about politics, or money, or the usual media circus. And perhaps it is. But if he wins, it could mark a fundamental change in how humans view their place in the world. Once you see yourself as a Moist Robot, subject to programming by Master Wizards and prophets, you can never unsee it.

Let me give you a concrete way to make these tells useful.

If you get into a debate, and you suspect the other person has abandoned reason for cognitive dissonance, what do you do?

Most of you would try harder to be more rational and to provide better data. But the hypnotist sees a different problem. To the hypnotist, the problem is not the argument but the the person’s self-image. So the hypnotist might, for example, use the Big Picture move to adjust a person’s self-image until the argument starts to fit.

Example:

Arguer: Your plan is terrible because [absurd reason].

Hypnotist: You might be right. But if we are smart we will try the plan that teaches us something even if it doesn’t work. Then we will be in better shape to test the next iteration. Let’s view it as a process.

[Here the hypnotist elevates the discussion from the weeds to the Big Picture of how one finds certainty in an uncertain world. The arguer recognizes this as bigger thinking than the argument in the weeds. He does not want to be the weeds guy. He immediately adjusts his self-image from weeds-guy to big thinker. Once his self-image matches your plan, he is free to agree. That typically takes the form of over-agreeing, or amplifying the Big Picture to demonstrate allegiance to it. As in…]

Arguer: Yes, of course we need a system to rapidly test all the plans. Duh. I tried to tell you that yesterday but I got busy. And I guess we can try yours first, since you already have the details worked out.

Summary: If someone disagrees with you based on facts, provide better facts. But if someone disagrees because of cognitive dissonance, change who that person believes they are. The Big Picture move is just one way to do that.

Trump isn’t trying to change your mind on the facts. He knows voters are in cognitive dissonance half the time or more. Trump is changing who we are, until our self-images match his argument. 

Don’t believe me? Wait until you see how many people that now oppose Trump’s immigration plan suddenly turn into people who understand we need a wall because good fences make good neighbors.

And you’re a good neighbor, right? 

That’s just one way Trump could win you over by keeping his argument the same and modifying your self-image.

If Trump does not win the White House, for any reason, I invite you to discard the Master Wizard hypothesis I have proposed in this blog space. I would do the same in your situation.

But if he wins it all… and no one can agree why…

Before you ask, I am working on a book list that would give you a wider exposure to this way of thinking, from different and more scientific perspectives. I’m waiting for a book that I have seen in draft form that will be a must-read when it has a final title and cover. It includes science and stuff. Give me two weeks.


Scott

For more on the Moist Robot hypothesis, see my book that has been enjoyed by dozens of attractive people so far, so it must be good.

In Top Tech Blog, And how about a robot that can lay bricks? That’s what we need. Send those robots to the desert to build us affordable housing, solar energy farms, and the rest.


Scott Adams Blog