Episode 131: North Korea, MAGA Hat-Grabbers and Mueller

Topics: 

  • Drink throwing hat grabber’s future prospects
  • Press elevating people to destruction levels for profit
  • The press business model primes for confirmation bias
  • Pompeo North Korea denuclearization talks progress
  • Rudy Giuliani says Trump will talk to Mueller…if criminal evidence is shown
  • Giant baby Trump balloon over London vs. Giant London Mayor balloon
  • Elon Musk’s rescue idea for Thai cave kids
  • #Walkaway guy (Brandon Straka) refused camera store service, took high road
  • Proposed DNA test, identity politics and Elizabeth Warren’s brand
  • Opinions based on reading another person’s mind are flawed by definition
  • Jim Jordan allegations are attempt to “execute” him by the press
  • Your political opinions are assigned to you…by the press and your culture

 

I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a “boss” somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I’m trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.

See all of my Periscope videos here.

Find my WhenHub Interface app here.

The post Episode 131: North Korea, MAGA Hat-Grabbers and Mueller appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Episode 127: Oprah, Optimism, North Korea and Supreme Court Picks, Debating Dale

Topics: 

  • Oprah’s comment about Democrat party experiencing hysteria
  • NBC report on North Korea cheating…are they cheating?
  • Gordon Chang says possible that Chairman Kim isn’t in charge
  • Supreme Court candidate, Amy Coney Barrett is the persuasion play
  • Dale debates Scott on “children in cages”

 

I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a “boss” somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I’m trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.

See all of my Periscope videos here.

Find my WhenHub Interface app here.

 

The post Episode 127: Oprah, Optimism, North Korea and Supreme Court Picks, Debating Dale appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Episode 108: What the Pundits Get Wrong About North Korea Pre-Deal

Topics: 

  • President Trump took away the reasons for North Korea to have nukes

 


 

I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a “boss” somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I’m trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.

See all of my Periscope videos here.

Find my WhenHub Interface app here.

The post Episode 108: What the Pundits Get Wrong About North Korea Pre-Deal appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Episode 88: Donovan Loomis in South Korea

Topics:

  • Discussion with American living in South Korea for 10 years
  • How do things look from SK perspective?
  • Compared to US, SK has…
    • Better healthcare
    • Better technology
    • Lower taxes
    • Higher housing costs
  • SK conservatives view on peace and denuclearization?
  • SK liberals view on peace and denuclearization?
  • SK rising unemployment
  • Feelings of hope, excitement, skepticism?
  • Health differences between SK and NK?
  • SK general feelings about President Trump?
  • SK general reaction to Trump walk-away from talks?
  • Fears of dying in a “lake of fire”?
  • US people verbally attacking Kim is NOT helpful
  • Otto Warmbier, SK perceptions on what happened

 

I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a “boss” somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I’m trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.

See all of my Periscope videos here.

For persuasion-related content in book form, see my bestselling book, Win Bigly.

The post Episode 88: Donovan Loomis in South Korea appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Episode 79: North Korea and Unusually Delicious Coffee

Topics:

  • Pence’s NK gigantic persuasion mistake
  • Kim’s denuke desire, just him or entire world?
  • Is SK President Moon the smartest guy in the game?
  • Did Trump corrupt his supporters, or just his critics?
  • Kids in the past were like printing money
  • Kids today are an enormous economic burden

 

I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a “boss” somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I’m trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.

See all of my Periscope videos here.

For persuasion-related content in book form, see my bestselling book, Win Bigly.

The post Episode 79: North Korea and Unusually Delicious Coffee appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Episode 75: “Obstructing Justice” is thinking past the sale, plus Iran and North Korea

Topics:

  • “Obstructing justice” sounds bad
  • “Obstructing injustice” sounds good
  • Framing makes a critical difference in perception
  • President Trump’s honest unvarnished opinions
  • Did SK President Moon play both NK and US President?
  • If going after Chinese banks doesn’t work, we might sanction the bankers themselves
  • How many explanations exist for WHY Middle East problems exist?
  • Many explanations is a tell for cognitive dissonance
  • What is the cognitive dissonance being experienced in the Middle East?
  • Secretary of State Pompeo is handling things like President Trump
  • Shake the box
  • Expand the scope
  • Take talks to the high ground

 

I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a “boss” somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I’m trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.

See all of my Periscope videos here.

For persuasion-related content in book form, see my bestselling book, Win Bigly.

 

The post Episode 75: “Obstructing Justice” is thinking past the sale, plus Iran and North Korea appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Episode 67: North Korea Walks From Negotiating Table. Who Saw That Coming?

Topics:

  • Why did Kim walk from negotiating table?
  • U.S. and South Korean military exercises at border
  • His request is justified
  • Easy for U.S. to resolve the disputed point
  • A good “walk away” by Kim

I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a “boss” somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I’m trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.

See all of my Periscope videos here.

For persuasion-related content in book form, see my bestselling book, Win Bigly.

The post Episode 67: North Korea Walks From Negotiating Table. Who Saw That Coming? appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Episode 107: About Roseanne, North Korea, and CNN

Roseanne TV show review

North Korea

CNN

The post Episode 107: About Roseanne, North Korea, and CNN appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

Moscow gallery provides glimpse into life in North Korea

Gallery in Moscow provides glimpse into life and propaganda in North Korea. Rough Cut (No reporter narration)


Reuters Video: Entertainment

Find your Soulmate Live webcam chat!

The American who will skate for South Korea in the Olympics

Five years ago, Mike Testwuide was languishing in the minors and at a career crossroads. Now the Colorado native is preparing to play on the world’s biggest stage, as an Olympian — and with a South Korean flag stitched to his jersey.
www.espn.com – NHL

How North Korea Can Become Switzerland of the East

North Korea is playing nice with South Korea lately as they coordinate joint participation in the Olympics. But don’t get too excited about that niceness because it is a wedge strategy to separate South Korea from the United States in our unified position against North Korean nukes. Still, talking feels like a positive step compared to the alternatives.

The big issue, as we all know, is that North Korea wants nuclear weapons and most of the rest of the world, especially the United States, is unwilling to live with that. Hence the economic sanctions.

So what would a solution to this stalemate look like?

For starters, you need a solution in which both sides seem to have won something. The alternative involves squeezing their economy until we choke it out, and that’s the current default path. The problem with that approach is that it risks pushing them to a war of desperation, and while we wait for that horror, millions of innocents will starve. The United States will come out on top eventually, but not at a cost we can be happy about. So allow me to suggest a winning option for all involved. I call it the Switzerland of the East plan.

Kim Jong Un went to school in Switzerland. He knows it as a country that gets just about everything right and does it without a traditional army. Is Switzerland safe from attack? Yup. Safer than just about any other country. Their famed neutrality is like a psychological army that costs nothing. No one has a reason to attack them, and everyone knows they won’t cause trouble.

Now, who would you rather be — a European country paying for a standing army, always worried about attack — or a country that is enjoying its neutrality while skiing and enjoying hot chocolate? I would argue that the Switzerland model is more stable and more respectable than any competing model, including the United States. And that gives North Korea a winning end state. They can, if they choose to pivot, become Switzerland of the East.

If North Korea traded away it’s offensive nuclear capabilities in return for a UN designation declaring them a neutral country, they could have the protection of China, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. Collectively, we would become North Korea’s free military while they prosper. Under this plan, the United States would draw down its military assets in South Korea as well.

On top of such a plan, I have previously suggested creating a 100-year roadmap for Korean unification. The reason for such a long time frame is that it takes pressure off of the living. The next generation would need to close the deal, and that gives lots of time for confidence steps along the way. The Olympic coordination is a confidence step. Increasing travel is another. Then trade, communications, etc. No need to rush.

The key to this plan is that it gives North Korea not just a winning path, but the most winning path any leader ever took. It would lead to a Nobel Peace Prize for sure, shared by other leaders, I assume. And it would give North Korea a BETTER outcome than the one they are currently aiming for. At the moment, their greatest realistic ambition is to survive. Becoming Switzerland of the East is better than that. Way better. So much better it can hardly be compared. One thing we know about Kim Jong Un is that he likes sports and he likes winning. If he pivoted to become Switzerland of the East, he’d win harder than any leader ever won anything.

And the rest of the world would win too.

North Korea would still need a functioning economy that didn’t depend on smuggling arms and other illegal stuff. But the world would gladly help them rebuild. I can see North Korea as a sort of Las Vegas model, where laws about personal behavior are lax and the money flows.

The United States and North Korea are engaging in a psychological war right now. And for the first time in history it is a fair fight. President Trump understands the mental game like no president before him. And Kim Jong Un appears to have a similar toolset. Never have we had such a perfect setup for peace. There is a win here for both leaders, and a win of historic proportions.

North Korea surely holds no hope of conquering South Korea or destroying the United States with fire and malice, despite their colorful rhetoric. Two years ago it was popular to believe Kim Jong Un was nuts. Now we see him as rational and clever. He’ll recognize a better deal when he sees it. And becoming Switzerland of the East could be the best deal any country ever had.

It’s time for some winning all around.

The post How North Korea Can Become Switzerland of the East appeared first on Dilbert Blog.


Dilbert Blog

The North Korea Reframe

North Korea is building nukes and ICBMs to prevent the United States from attacking. Meanwhile, the United States does not want to attack North Korea. And yet we find ourselves at the brink of nuclear war while not actually having a root problem on which we disagree. They don’t want to be attacked and we don’t want to attack them. Doesn’t that seem solvable?

The problem, as I see it, is psychology more than weaponry. As long as North Korea sees the United States as a military threat, expect North Korea to keep upgrading their nuclear arsenal.

So what would it take to “reframe” the situation from two mortal enemies on the brink of war to something less dangerous?

Perhaps we should look at the same reframing strategy President Trump is using to apparent success with ISIS. The president reframed our involvement from temporary to permanent. Then he added a momentum change courtesy of General Mattis. Under President Obama, ISIS probably saw the U.S. military involvement as a temporary problem because that’s exactly how it was framed. Now they see it as permanent . . . and they observe themselves losing. The “permanent loser” frame is a different framing than before, and it might be the reason we see more surrenders. (Or we might be seeing more alleged surrenders because exaggerated reports of that type would be good persuasion too.)

At the moment, North Korea sees the economic sanctions as temporary. They also see our threats as temporary until they have full nuclear deterrent. The temporary frame is a losing frame for the United States.

On top of the temporary frame, things look personal between the U.S. and North Korea. Dignity is in the game. Ego is in the game. Those things need to be reframed out of the situation to get any kind of solution.

So consider the following reframe. Imagine depersonalizing the North Korean situation by pushing for a United Nations rule that any not-yet-fully-nuclear country building nukes and ICBMS is permanently barred from any form of global commerce. Ever. Period. And it’s not personal to North Korea. It’s just the new rule.

It’s the “ever” part, along with depersonalizing things to a generic rule that creates the new frame. In this frame, there is no winning to be had for North Korea. They can build their nukes, but only at the expense of permanent and total economic collapse, courtesy of the the rest of the world as expressed by the United Nations.

I don’t think total economic ruin of North Korea was ever a realistic strategy option until recently. But China seems to be onboard. And President Trump is unlikely to take his boot off Little Rocket Man’s tiny wallet anytime soon. I can’t imaging President Trump backing off until he gets what he wants. But we haven’t framed it as permanent. And we could, with the help of the United Nations.

Let’s call this the “I’ll just take my ball and go home” strategy. And it works best if we reduce military presence to something more obviously defensive. In this model, it’s not personal. It’s just a rule the UN agreed on.

There is great persuasive power in saying something is a general rule as opposed to a specific action against one player. It takes ego out of the game and it has a non-negotiable feel from the start.

Note: My main topic for this blog lately is persuasion. I’m not an expert on North Korea or international affairs. I don’t expect anyone to take my noodling on this topic today too seriously. If you learned something about persuasion by reading this far, that’s all I’m hoping to achieve here.

You might want to pre-order my book about practical persuasion, Win Bigly, at this link because that’s how you get a free bonus chapter by email.

image


Dilbert Blog

The North Korea Reframe

North Korea is building nukes and ICBMs to prevent the United States from attacking. Meanwhile, the United States does not want to attack North Korea. And yet we find ourselves at the brink of nuclear war while not actually having a root problem on which we disagree. They don’t want to be attacked and we don’t want to attack them. Doesn’t that seem solvable?

The problem, as I see it, is psychology more than weaponry. As long as North Korea sees the United States as a military threat, expect North Korea to keep upgrading their nuclear arsenal.

So what would it take to “reframe” the situation from two mortal enemies on the brink of war to something less dangerous? 

Perhaps we should look at the same reframing strategy President Trump is using to apparent success with ISIS. The president reframed our involvement from temporary to permanent. Then he added a momentum change courtesy of General Mattis. Under President Obama, ISIS probably saw the U.S. military involvement as a temporary problem because that’s exactly how it was framed. Now they see it as permanent … and they observe themselves losing. The “permanent loser” frame is a different framing than before, and it might be the reason we see more surrenders. (Or we might be seeing more alleged surrenders because exaggerated reports of that type would be good persuasion too.)

At the moment, North Korea sees the economic sanctions as temporary. They also see our threats as temporary until they have full nuclear deterrent. The temporary frame is a losing frame for the United States.

On top of the temporary frame, things look personal between the U.S. and North Korea. Dignity is in the game. Ego is in the game. Those things need to be reframed out of the situation to get any kind of solution.

So consider the following reframe. Imagine depersonalizing the North Korean situation by pushing for a United Nations rule that any not-yet-fully-nuclear country building nukes and ICBMS is permanently barred from any form of global commerce. Ever. Period. And it’s not personal to North Korea. It’s just the new rule.

It’s the “ever” part, along with depersonalizing things to a generic rule that creates the new frame. In this frame, there is no winning to be had for North Korea. They can build their nukes, but only at the expense of permanent and total economic collapse, courtesy of the the rest of the world as expressed by the United Nations. 

I don’t think total economic ruin of North Korea was ever a realistic strategy option until recently. But China seems to be onboard. And President Trump is unlikely to take his boot off Little Rocket Man’s tiny wallet anytime soon. I can’t imagine President Trump backing off until he gets what he wants. But we haven’t framed it as permanent. And we could, with the help of the United Nations.

Let’s call this the “I’ll just take my ball and go home” strategy. And it works best if we reduce military presence to something more obviously defensive. In this model, it’s not personal. It’s just a rule the UN agreed on.

There is great persuasive power in saying something is a general rule as opposed to a specific action against one player. It takes ego out of the game and it has a non-negotiable feel from the start.

Note: My main topic for this blog lately is persuasion. I’m not an expert on North Korea or international affairs. I don’t expect anyone to take my noodling on this topic today too seriously. If you learned something about persuasion by reading this far, that’s all I’m hoping to achieve here.

You might want to pre-order my book about practical persuasion, Win Bigly, at this link because that’s how you get a free bonus chapter by email.

image


Scott Adams’ Blog

Stephen Colbert To North Korea: ‘Knock It Off’ With The Sick Trump Burns

“I’m not gonna stand here as an American and let somebody from another country talk smack about our president.”
Comedy
ENTERTAINMENT NEWS-Visit Mobile Playboy today for the hottest adult entertainment online!

Why North Korea and the United States are Near War

You might have heard that North Korea and the United States are not getting along. We mock their lack of electricity, they threaten to annihilate us with thermonuclear weapons, that sort of thing.

But why are we enemies?

I’ll sort it all out for you here.

Obviously the largest source of friction is that the United States and North Korea want very different things. And those different things are mutually exclusive. For example, we want to avoid nuclear war and they… okay, they also want to avoid nuclear war. But on most other issues, we want different things.

For example, North Korea doesn’t want the U.S. to invade their country. The United States, on the other hand, wants to invade North Korea about as much as we want rabid porcupines shoved up our asses. I guess you could say we’re on the same page on that too. But that’s only two points of agreement in this whole mess. You have to look at the big picture.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wants to establish himself as a credible nuclear power, partly for defense, and partly as a vehicle for national pride. So far, they have succeeded on the national pride part. The United States wishes they had not, but we agree it was an impressive achievement. So we’re on the same page about the national pride. They earned it.

Where we differ is that the United States and its ally, South Korea, would like to see a unified Korean peninsula someday, but we realize there is no-way-in-hell it can happen in our lifetimes. North Korea, on the other hand, wants to see a unified Korean peninsula someday, but they realize there is no-way-in-hell it can happen in their lifetimes. If you strip away the magical thinking and hard-wishing, we’re of the same opinion on unification: Nice, but not gonna happen while we’re alive.

Okay, okay, we’re mostly on the same page about all of the stuff I mentioned so far. But consider that North Korea would like to feed its people and grow its economy. The United States would like for them to do that too, so long as they leave us alone. Okay, I guess we’re on the same page there too.

The biggest problem the United States has with North Korea is that Kim Jong Un wants to avoid being killed or deposed and we don’t give a shit about him one way or another so long as he leaves us alone. So I guess we aren’t too far apart on that either, unless we want to be total dicks about it and kill him just for fun. 

One of the biggest sticking points is that the United States has massive military assets in South Korea. North Korea doesn’t like that. Contrast that opinion to the normal citizen in the United States who doesn’t understand why-the-hell we have even one soldier in South Korea. What is the point of it? Are we preparing for the big push to conquer China? (Probably not.) Is South Korea unable to deter an attack from the North? (Not as long as they can afford American weapons systems, and the U.S. still has a navy.) So I guess Kim Jong Un and American voters are mostly on the same side about our presence in South Korea. We all understand that American military presence in South Korea once had a purpose, but not so much in 2017. 

I confess to being under-informed about the situation with North Korea, but it seems to me that the issue boils down to magical thinking about future unification. North Korea wants to be on the winning side of any unification and so does South Korea. The problem is that no one knows how both sides could be the winners

Except for me. This is right in my wheelhouse.

Let me reframe this for you. I won’t change any of the data, just the filter you apply to it.

The situation in North Korea involves a number of what I’d call “real” problems, such as the very real risk of nuclear war, and the very real artillery batteries in North Korea pointed at South Korea. When your security risks are the “real” kind, you hire an experienced military person to deal with it. General Mattis seems to have a good handle on the “real” risks.

Now let’s talk about the stuff that isn’t “real” in any physical sense. The first issue is North Korean national pride. I’m sure any negotiated settlement could keep that intact. For example, having direct talks with the United States would be a point of honor. And one can imagine a negotiated agreement that lets them keep nuclear power for energy while not building any ICBMs. Everyone’s pride stays intact.

But what about all the magical thinking about unification? That requires a magical-thinking solution. That’s where I come in. As a trained persuader, I have a suggested solution. I call it the hundred-year-plan for unification. Both sides would simply agree to work out the details over the next hundred years. The details might include loosening travel, establishing trade, eventual amnesty for leaders, that sort of thing. That way, both sides could claim victory. The victory would be in the imagination of both sides, not in the real world. But it still works, because a change in imagination is all you need to cure magical thinking. And unification in our lifetimes is, for all practical purposes, just magical thinking.

For more details on my 100-year-plan for Korean unification, see this blog post.

For my regular readers, recall that a year ago I was one of the few voices saying Kim Jong Un was rational while most pundits and “experts” were saying he was a total nut job. Today, most “experts” have evolved to my view that Kim Jong Un is a rational player.

Recall also that in 2015 I was one of the first public voices to proclaim candidate Trump was far more than the “clown” the public and pundits widely believed him to be. I mention both cases to bolster my credibility.

In summary, if you have “real” security problems, call General Mattis. But if your problems are in the realm of imagination and magical thinking, call a Master Persuader.

Better yet, elect him president.

Check!

You’re in better hands than you know. 

That doesn’t mean everything will turn out well with North Korea, but it does mean you have the right team in place for the first time, capable of managing both the “real” and the imaginary dimensions. And in Kim Jong Un I suspect we have a negotiating partner who understands all dimensions. 

We are closer to war with North Korea than at any time in recent memory. But we are also closer than we have ever been to a permanent solution. My optimism about North Korea is that for the first time in history we have players on the field who understand the nature of the problem as partly real and partly imaginary, and they have the tools to deal with all of it. I don’t think we’ve had the right people on the job until now.

Have you noticed that our Insulter-in-Chief has been going easy on Kim Jong Un in the verbal sparring? President Trump has been downright respectful.

It isn’t an accident. 

My startup’s app, Approach by WhenHub, is helping hurricane Harvey families and emergency responders in the area locate each other. Our analytics show the app picking up popularity in the flood zone.


Scott Adams’ Blog

In South Korea, K-Pop Pleads for Peace

During heightened tensions, thousands of young people turned out to a concert near the demilitarized zone.
Rock Music
Chat Live!
Join Group Chat!

Stephen Colbert Just Figured Out The Worst Thing Trump Could Do To North Korea

Yes, worse than “fire and fury.”
Comedy
ENTERTAINMENT NEWS-Visit Mobile Playboy today for the hottest adult entertainment online!

People Keep Telling Me to Stop Blogging about North Korea

My critics have been extra vocal lately in saying I should stop writing about North Korea because I have no expertise in that area. So I decided to talk about North Korea some more. Today I’ll tell you how to end North Korea’s nuclear ambitions at a reasonable cost.

The entire GDP for North Korea is under $ 13 billion. China’s trade with North Korea is valued at under $ 3 billion per year. An article in Newsweek recently said most of that trade involves only ten Chinese companies. South Korea pays close to $ 1 billion per year to support U.S. troops there. I think we pay at least that much too. And that’s not counting navy assets in the area, I assume.

The South Korean military budget hovers around $ 40 billion. The U.S. military budget is over $ 600 billion per year. And North Korea is our biggest threat to the homeland. We could make all ten Chinese companies financially whole by allocating .005 of the military budget to paying them to find new suppliers and new markets. We might even become those new suppliers and markets in some cases.

As I often say in this blog, the key to deal-making is that the parties need to want different things. The Chinese companies trading with North Korea want profits, and the United States wants security. That’s the perfect set-up for a deal. The deal looks like this: “Take our money for ten years (only), stop trading with North Korea, and find new suppliers and customers, or we’ll turn out your lights with cyberattacks that look like they came from Russia.”

That’s the first-draft version. We can probably tighten that up a bit with lawyers and stuff.

Obviously this plan doesn’t work if the real problem is that the Chinese government wants to keep the North Korean nuclear threat the way it is. But that line of thinking never sounded credible to me. I’m also a bit skeptical that the Chinese fear mass immigration if North Korea falls apart. That seems like a smaller problem than nuclear war on the peninsula. But I could be wrong about that.

I could also be wrong about everything else in this post. I’m not an expert on North Korea. But as an American citizen, I have the right to wonder aloud why my government is skipping the cheap, non-military option for pressuring North Korea. If the government wants public support for whatever option they end up taking, it would help to keep citizens better informed than we are now, including me. 

You might enjoy reading my book because I am not an expert on North Korea.

I’m also on…

Twitter (includes Periscope): @scottadamssays​

YouTube: At this link.

Instagram: ScottAdams925

Facebook Official Page: fb.me/ScottAdamsOfficial


Scott Adams’ Blog

North Korea is an Information Problem Disguised as a Military Problem

In the year 2017, most of our national problems are information problems. And by that I mean having the right information would allow us to solve most problems.

Consider the nuclear threat from North Korea. That’s an information problem disguised as a military problem. 

I hope that statement seems wrong to you, so you will be extra-impressed when I change your mind in the next hundred seconds.

If the U.S. government tries to strongarm China to control North Korea’s nuclear program, that might cause more problems than it solves. No one likes a government-to-government confrontation of that type. China would have to push back. It could get ugly fast.

But imagine what would happen if American consumers knew which American companies were doing the most business with China. 

And imagine American consumers understanding that China can turn off the economy of North Korea, like a switch, any time it wants, thus controlling North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

Now connect the dots.

If you treat the North Korean nuclear threat as a military problem, it becomes one. If you treat it as an information problem, with an economic variable, it becomes that instead.

I’m in favor of my government trying to negotiate an agreement with China, Russia, and North Korea. But if our leaders can’t get it done, I ask the government to get out of the way. Citizens can take care of this one directly.

All we need is some information.

I think that took me less than a hundred seconds. 

You might enjoy reading my book while enjoying a delicious beverage because it is hot outside.

I’m also on…

Twitter (includes Periscope): @scottadamssays​

YouTube: At this link.

Instagram: ScottAdams925

Facebook Official Page: fb.me/ScottAdamsOfficial


Scott Adams’ Blog

Solving the North Korea Situation

I have some spare time this morning so I thought I would solve the North Korean nuclear threat problem.

The current frame on how all sides are approaching the problem is a win-lose setup. Either North Korea wins – and develops nukes that can reach the mainland USA – or the United States wins, and North Korea abandons its nuclear plans, loses face, loses leverage, and loses security. Our current framing of the situation doesn’t have a path to success. 

So how do you fix that situation?

First we must acknowledge that a win-lose model has no chance of success in this specific case because North Korea responds to threats by working harder to build nukes. That’s no good. You need some form of a win-win setup to make any kind of deal. That’s what I’m about to suggest. And by winning, I mean both sides get what they need, even if it isn’t exactly what they said they want

What the U.S. wants is a nuclear-free North Korea. That would be our win.

What North Korea wants is an ironclad national defense, prestige, prosperity, and maybe even reunification of the Koreas on their terms. So let me describe a way to get there. 

The main principle to keep in mind is that you can almost always reach a deal when two parties want different things. If we frame the situation as North Korea wanting nuclear weapons, and the U.S. not wanting them to have those nukes, no deal can be reached. There is no way for North Korea to simultaneously have nukes while having no nukes.

So you need to reframe the situation. The following deal structure does that.

Proposed North Korean Peace Deal

China, Russia, and U.S. sign a military security agreement to protect

BOTH

North Korea and South Korea from attack

BY ANYONE

for 100 years, in return for North Korea suspending its ICBM and nuclear weapons programs and allowing inspectors to confirm they are sticking to the deal.

At the end of a hundred years, North Korea and South Korea agree to unify under one rule. No other details on how that happens will be in the agreement. North Korea will be free to tell its people that the Kim dynasty negotiated to be the rulers of the unified country in a hundred years. South Korea will be free to announce that unification is a goal with no details attached. We will all be dead in 100 years, so we can agree to anything today. (That’s the key to making this work – all players will be dead before the end of it.)

The U.S. withdraws military assets from South Korea.

South Korea and North Korea reduce their non-nuclear military assets that point at each other.

Over the course of the 100-year deal, there could be a number of confidence-building steps in the agreement. For example, in ten years you might have a robust tourist arrangement. In twenty years, perhaps you can do business across borders. In fifty years, perhaps a unified currency (by then digital).

A hundred years is plenty of time for the Kim family to make their fortunes and move to Switzerland, or wherever, before unification is an issue. The deal might require some sort of International amnesty agreement for any North Korean leaders looking to get out of the country before unification.

Under this proposed deal structure all sides get what they want. North Korea’s leader can tell his people that their nuclear program was a big success because it resulted in the United States withdrawing forces, and it led to an eventual Korean unification on his terms. There is no opposition press in North Korea to dispute that framing. This looks like total victory to North Korea. That’s a win.

For the United States, a credible deal to get rid of North Korean nukes is a win. China and Russia would look like the adults in the room. They win too.

South Korea wins too, obviously. 

And this deal would probably result in Nobel Peace Prizes for the leaders of all countries involved. 

Students of history will recall that Great Britain agreed to lease Hong Kong from China for 99 years to avoid any risk of China taking Hong Kong militarily. The long lease period allowed both countries to agree to a deal that could not have been reached for a shorter time period. And it gave everyone time to plan for the peaceful transfer. No two situations are alike, but you can see how a hundred-year deal makes it easy to agree to difficult things today. We’ll all be dead before any of it matters. And if you work toward a common goal for a hundred years, the odds are good that it can happen. One way or another.

This is the sort of deal that would have been impossible in prior years. But the Trump administration understands the structure of dealmaking. This solution is available for the taking.

Update: President Trump tweeted that trade between China and North Korea is up 40% in the first quarter. Look at how he frames it:

This is what I have been describing as Trump’s go-to strategy of creating two ways to win and no way to lose. In this case, China either clamped down on North Korea (we win), or we can say we tried to get them to help and they refused.

That’s a free pass to do whatever we need to do, no matter how much China dislikes it. Hey, we tried it the other way. Clearly it didn’t work.

And it sets the table for all sides to get more serious about solving this non-militarily. Would you want President Trump to have a free pass to kill you?

My suggested deal structure is the only non-military option, as far as I can tell.

You might enjoy reading my book because I should get the Nobel Peace Prize for unifying North and South Korea with my excellent ideas.

I’m also on…

Twitter (includes Periscope): @scottadamssays​

YouTube: At this link.

Instagram: ScottAdams925

Facebook Official Page: fb.me/ScottAdamsOfficial


Scott Adams’ Blog

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Sony Hack Was Likely An Inside Job, Not North Korea

North Korea wasn’t behind the Sony hacks. Experts believe that it was likely the work of disgruntled ex employees

Reports the New York Post:

One leading cybersecurity firm, Norse Corp., said Monday it has narrowed its list of suspects to a group of six people — including at least one Sony veteran with the necessary technical background to carry out the attack, according to reports.

The investigation of the Sony hacking by the private companies stands in stark contrast to the finding of the FBI, which said Dec. 19 its probe traced the hacking — which ended up foiling the planned wide release of the Hollywood studio’s “The Interview” — to North Korea.

Kurt Stammberger, senior vice president at Norse, said he used Sony’s leaked human-resources documents and cross-referenced the data with communications on hacker chat rooms and its own network of Web sensors to determine it was not North Korea behind the hack.

“When the FBI made this announcement, just a few days after the attack was made public, it raised eyebrows in the community because it’s hard to do that kind of an attribution that quickly — it’s almost unheard of,” Stammberger told Bloomberg News in a telephone interview from San Francisco.

“All the leads that we did turn up that had a Korean connection turned out to be dead ends,” he said.

The FBI and the State Department is sticking with their version of events. State Department spokesman Jeff Rathke told reporters, “The United States government has concluded that the North Korean government is responsible for this attack. And we stand by that conclusion.”

North Korea denied involvement in the hacks from the beginning.

Photo: WENN

The post Sony Hack Was Likely An Inside Job, Not North Korea appeared first on Hip-Hop Wired.

Hip-Hop Wired

U.S. suspects North Korea had help attacking Sony Pictures

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North Korea Blames U.S. For Shutting Down Its Internet, Says Obama Was Behind ‘The Interview’ Release

HYUNG-JIN KIM, Associated Press

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea called President Barack Obama “a monkey” and blamed the U.S. on Saturday for shutting down its Internet amid the hacking row over the comedy “The Interview.”

North Korea has denied involvement in a crippling cyberattack on Sony Pictures but has expressed fury over the comedy depicting an assassination of its leader Kim Jong Un. After Sony Pictures initially called off the release in a decision criticized by Obama, the movie has opened this week.

On Saturday, the North’s powerful National Defense Commission, the country’s top governing body led by Kim, said that Obama was behind the release of “The Interview.” It described the movie as illegal, dishonest and reactionary.

“Obama always goes reckless in words and deeds like a monkey in a tropical forest,” an unidentified spokesman at the commission’s Policy Department said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

He also accused Washington for intermittent outages of North Korea websites this week, after the U.S. had promised to respond to the Sony hack.

There was no immediate reaction from the White House on Saturday.

According to the North Korea commission’s spokesman, “the U.S., a big country, started disturbing the Internet operation of major media of the DPRK, not knowing shame like children playing a tag.”

The commission said the movie was the results of a hostile U.S. policy toward North Korea, and threatened the U.S. with unspecified consequences.

North Korea and the U.S. remain technically in a state of war because the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty. The rivals also are locked in an international standoff over the North’s nuclear and missile programs and its alleged human rights abuses. The U.S. stations about 28,500 troops in South Korea as deterrence against North Korean aggression.

Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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Did North Korea Really Attack Sony?

I am deeply skeptical of the FBI’s announcement on Friday that North Korea was behind last month’s Sony hack. The agency’s evidence is tenuous, and I have a hard time believing it. But I also have trouble believing that the U.S. government would make the accusation this formally if officials didn’t believe it.

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